FwdRE: ☕️ One day, three bankruptcies

On Tue, Jan 28, 2020, 5:10 AM Morning Brew <crew@morningbrew.com> wrote:

When slow and steady doesn't win the race...

January 28, 2020 Read in Browser TOGETHER WITH Good Tuesday morning. Today is National Plan for Vacation Day and, setting aside the absurdity of having an official day to plan for vacation, we want to help. Some trips Brew employees have enjoyed recently: Belize (especially hiking/swimming the ATM cave) Jordan  Biscayne National Park in southern Florida Tayrona National Natural Park in Colombia  Kraków, Poland If you live in any of those places, keep your eyes peeled for roving bands of Brew readers in a few months. Note:More than 80 people are dead, 56 million across China are on lockdown, and millions more are scared to leave home. The tourism industry is close to panic mode.

In the meantime, check out the latest Business Casual podcast episode with NFL analyst and exec Michael Lombardi: Apple / Spotify / everywhere else MARKETS NASDAQ 9,154.23 - 1.73% S&P 3,248.93 - 1.41% DJIA 28,573.31 - 1.44% GOLD 1,579.70 + 0.50% 10-YR 1.603% - 8.50 bps OIL 53.08 - 2.05% *As of market close U.S. markets: With the coronavirus dominating headlines, U.S. stocks had their worst day in over three months. But if you think the whole thing is overblown as an economic risk...you'd have history on your side. In 2003, the S&P gained more than 10% from the start of the SARS outbreak to when it was contained. Oil: The price of Brent crude is down roughly 10% since China confirmed the death of a second person from the virus. Investors are worried that the virus will slow the global economy and reduce demand for fuel. TRADING Slow and Steady Doesn't Win the HFT Race Francis Scialabba We like to race Google Maps to turn that 13 minute walk into a brisk 11. But in the financial markets, high-frequency traders are scurrying to execute trades by margins of 0.000005 seconds. According to a study released yesterday by British regulators, that head-to-head could cost investors $4.8 billion annually, the WSJ reports.  Let's start slow High-frequency trading (HFT): using complex algorithms to execute trades in hyperspeed. It's been criticized for amplifying market swings and benefitting big traders. Latency arbitrage: when high-frequency traders are able to profit from a split-second advantage in executing a particular trade.  According to the study, latency arbitrage imposes a $55,000 "tax" on every $1.3 billion traded. In the U.S. in 2018, traders made an estimated $1 billion off the NYSE and $862 million off the Nasdaq.  What it means Latency arbitrage can increase costs for investors. As experts told the Journal: Investors are "less likely to post competitive price quotes for stocks, knowing that those quotes could get picked off by speedy traders." "That, in turn, means investors get slightly worse prices whenever they buy or sell shares." The study's authors said latency arbitrage's costs are concentrated among larger investors and imperceptible to average households.  The profits are also skewed. Just six firms won over 80% of "races" (when firms compete to make a trade first) measured in the study. The authors said eliminating latency arbitrage could cut trading costs by 17%.  Not everyone is upset. Kirsten Wegner, CEO of an HFT lobbying group, said the paper seems to have a political agenda and latency arbitrage actually helps investors by reducing transaction costs. Big picture: You just read about companies quietly getting billions to the detriment of others, so you know what's coming next. Presidential candidates Sens. Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren want financial transaction taxes to slow down high-frequency trading. IPO Pack Your Horns and Go Giphy Casper Sleep is no longer a unicorn. According to new IPO docs, the mattress startup would be valued at $768 million if it went public at the top of its price range. It was worth $1.1 billion last March.  Jargon alert: A "unicorn" is a privately held company valued at $1 billion or more. The term was coined by venture capitalist Aileen Lee in 2013. A company—such as Casper—that loses its $1 billion valuation is called an "undercorn."  Zoom out: Casper was the most typical 2019 unicorn you've ever met. In the nine months ending Sept. 30 revenue grew really fast (up 20% to $312 million), but losses also widened (to $67 million).  As it prepares to IPO, Casper will have to convince investors it has a path to profitability. Because if not, we have two words smushed awkwardly together for you: WeWork.  Looking ahead...the IPO market is starting to heat up with big offerings. Pantry staple Reynolds Consumer Products is hoping to raise $1.3 billion this week.   TOURISM Chinese Tourism Is Canceled Canceled flights at Tianhe airport in Wuhan, China. LEO RAMIREZ/AFP via Getty Images. More than 80 people are dead, 56 million across China are on lockdown, and millions more are scared to leave home. The tourism industry is close to panic mode.  The Lunar New Year holiday, which began last Saturday, is one of China's busiest shopping and travel periods. Except that's not happening because of the spreading coronavirus.  Last year, Chinese consumers spent ~$148 billion on retail and catering during the Lunar New Year week. Domestic tourism generated $74 billion across 415 million trips.  China's movie industry earns about 10% of its annual revenue during this period. But right now, airlines are refunding tickets, premieres are canceled, and rail and air travel on Saturday was down 41% annually. Zoom out China's economy was slowing before the outbreak. If coronavirus isn't contained by March, GDP growth could slip below the symbolic 6% mark, experts said. Meanwhile, countries including Japan, Vietnam, and South Korea depend on a steady inflow of Chinese tourists. They spent ~$18 billion in Thailand last year, and yesterday, Thai stocks dropped the most since 2016. SPONSORED BY WISE BREAD With My $1,080 I Will Buy a Mountain Goat I've just learned about a credit card that can give you an estimated $1,080 in cash back the first year you have it. Over one thousand dollars. That's enough cash for me to finally realize my dream of purchasing a North American Rocky Mountain goat—commonly referred to as a "mountain goat"—and rearing him as my own. This card gives me up to 5% cash back, so I'll basically be swimming in cash. Enough cash to provide my hoofed companion with all the subalpine vegetation he needs to grow strong. Plus, this card is offering 0% APR for 14 months and no annual fee. After 14 months, my mountain goat will have grown considerably, and will soon be ready to go on ice climbing trips. I won't have trouble affording ice climbing; I will have so much money because of this card. Whatever you want to do with your money, this card will help you. BANKRUPTCY Not a Good Day to Be a Lucky Blue Louie Lucky's Market When our newsletter takes a trip to Wilmington, DE, it's not to grab a brew at Iron Hill. It's to report on the chains that filed for chapter 11 in U.S. Bankruptcy Court yesterday.  Lucky's Market Not even backing from the largest supermarket chain in the country could save Colorado-based specialty grocer Lucky's Market. Kroger bought a stake in the company almost four years ago, but said last December it expected to write down the value of its investment by $238 million.  The plan forward: Lucky's has already started to close 32 of its 39 stores. It's looking to sell at least some to discount grocer Aldi.  American Blue Ribbon Holdings The owner of restaurant chains Bakers Square and Village Inn couldn't withstand an onslaught from a) higher wages and b) competition from family dining spots like IHOP and Denny's.  Fun fact: 30% of Bakers Square's sales are pies.  Bar Louie Your favorite strip mall burger joint closed 38 stores and arranged a sale to lenders. It expects to emerge from bankruptcy within three months.  SPORTS I LIV for This TicketIQ Stay one step ahead of Darren Rovell with this chart from TicketIQ. It shows the average secondary market listing price of Super Bowl tickets over the last 10 years. Key takeaways: If the numbers hold, Super Bowl LIV between the Kansas City Chiefs and San Francisco 49ers will be the second most expensive secondary Super Bowl ticket of the decade. Only the 2015 Super Bowl would be more expensive (do you remember who played? Answer at the bottom of the newsletter).  TicketIQ says that historically, secondary market tickets fall to their lowest average asking price a week before the game and on Super Bowl Sunday itself.  As of last night, the most expensive ticket costs $41,644 in The 72 Club.  If you're gunning for The 72 Club but don't necessarily want to sell your house to get in, there are some creative options to explore. StubHub is partnering with fintech company Affirm to offer payment plans for ticket buyers. Annual interest rates range from 10% to 30%.  PODCAST From Super Bowls to Streaming: Michael Lombardi on the NFL's Financial Future Giphy In five short days, Americans will split into two distinct categories: 1) those watching the Super Bowl for the commercials and 2) liars. Ads during this year's game sold out in November and cost up to $5.6 million per 30-second spot.  This week on Morning Brew's weekly Business Casual podcast, we tackle the business beast that is the National Football League. Our tour guide, famed NFL analyst and exec Michael Lombardi, will walk us through... The sustainability of Super Bowl hype  International expansion Legalized sports betting And the biggest threats to profitability Listen here: Apple / Spotify / everywhere else WHAT ELSE IS BREWING GM said it will invest $2.2 billion in a Detroit plant to make electric cars and SUVs. The NBA postponed tonight's game between the Lakers and the Clippers following Kobe Bryant's death. Bird, a big name in e-scooters, confirmed it's acquiring European competitor Circ.  The coronavirus has been helping one sector: companies that make cleaning products. Atari-branded hotels are coming to a U.S. city near you.  India wants to sell its 100% stake in Air India, the national carrier. BREW'S BETS Diversify your portfolio with artwork by the GOATs. We're talking about blue-chips like Basquiat whose paintings have appreciated by over 17% since 2000. Get in on the action with Masterworks, the only stock market for art. Skip the 25,000+ waitlist with this special Morning Brew link.* Your face is going to be jealous of your butt. Spoil your heiney with TUSHY, the clip-on bidet that cleans with a refreshing stream of water. It eliminates the need for scratchy, dry (and unsustainable) TP and fits on any standard toilet. Click here for 10% off.* Inbox magic: Girls' Night In is an excellent newsletter and community for people who'd rather stay in tonight. You can subscribe for smart reads and self-care tips in your inbox every Friday. Tech Tip Tuesday: Today is Data Privacy Day, so we're sharing a roundup of roundups to help you control how your data is shared… On your phone On Facebook In general *This is a sponsored post FROM THE CREW A petition to move the Super Bowl from Sunday to Saturday is going viral. But there is another option: a Monday holiday. What would you prefer...a Saturday game with Sunday to recuperate or a Sunday game with Monday off? Vote here.  MAPQUEST What do the colors on this map represent?  SHARE THE BREW Enjoying the Brew? Consider sharing it with your network. When your friends sign up using your unique referral link, you can earn prizes when you hit certain milestones. Hit the button below to learn more and start sharing. Click to Share Or copy & paste your referral link to others: morningbrew.com/daily/r/?kid=5e25388f ANSWERS Super Bowl pop quiz The 2015 Super Bowl was a magnificent game played between the New England Patriots and the Seattle Seahawks. Map trivia Hours of sunshine per year  Was this email forwarded to you? Sign up here. Written by Neal Freyman, Alex Hickey, and Kinsey Grant WANT MORE BREW?   Retail newsletter → Retail Brew   Tech newsletter → Emerging Tech Brew   Election newsletter → The Turnout   Business podcast → Business Casual ADVERTISE // CAREERS // SHOP Update your email preferences or unsubscribe here. Change your email address here. Copyright ©2020 Morning Brew. All rights reserved. 40 Exchange Pl., Suite #300, New York, NY 10005