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Sunday, December 29, 2019

Fwd: ☕️ The Decade in Review: People








Gen Z, we're handing this off to you
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The Decade in Review: People
TOGETHER WITH
DashLane
Good morning. So far in our Decade in Review series, we've discussed themes like the economy, corporations, tech, and work. 
But do you hang out with corporations on the weekends? Does the economy cry on your shoulder when it's going through a recession? Of course not. Today's newsletter cuts to the soul of the 2010s: the people. 

GEN Z

No VSCO Girls Were Harmed in the Writing of This Story

A group of young women walking through an empty lot
Pixabay
Since 2010, we've borne witness to 179 new Drake songs on Spotify and approx. 12,475,324 stories suggesting millennials are "killing" something, from canned fish to marriage. But as these blood-thirsty millennials settle into a routine of Saturday night laundry folding and 90 Day Fiancé, they're passing the baton of societal disruption on to the next generation—Gen Z.
The shift in focus from millennials (born 1981–1996, per Pew) to Gen Z (1997 onward) in culture, the workplace, and the economy has represented a series of meaningful changes:

In culture

Americans under 25 are the most diverse generation ever. Almost half are non-white, compared to 39% of millennials and 18% of boomers. 
  • Diversity means wider acceptance of social movements: More than half of those under 25 say #BlackLivesMatter has had a major impact on their perceptions and 41% say the same about #MeToo.
Technology can shape a generation (just ask Gen A about the wheel). So it's no surprise that Gen Zers, who have hardly known a world without internet-capable phones, and millennials, who can do the AOL dial-up noise on command, use tech differently.
  • Per Morning Consult, 13–16-year-old Americans are now as likely to use TikTok as Facebook or Twitter. Almost half are on the Chinese video-sharing app.
  • Only 15% of 22–26-year-olds use TikTok, and the oldest millennials prefer YouTube, Facebook, and Instagram.

In the workplace

82% of people think it's harder for young adults to find a job today than it was for their parents. Maybe that's because all that worldliness has made workplace culture a giant sticking point for new job market entrants—94% of execs and 88% of employees think a distinct workplace culture is important for a business's success, according to Deloitte.
  • Plus, some 70% of teens today are self-employed, per HBR. #sidehustle.
And how do they use their biweekly Venmo paychecks? Millennials are more willing to spend money on specific brands they think offer a unique experience or value. Both groups open their wallets for sustainability and ethical sourcing.

In the economy

When the financial crisis hit, millennials were crying at college graduation, while Gen Z was learning the FOIL method in Mrs. Williams's 6th-grade math class.
  • Millennials are the face of the $1.5 trillion student debt crisis. And less than half think they're better off than their parents. 
  • Gen Z has embraced socialism at double the rate of boomers and Gen Xers. About 10% say their generation's top issues will be the economy and debt.
Bottom line: The maturation of Gen Z will have broad implications for businesses, from defining workplace culture to determining risk aversion in investing. But at the end of the day, we know there's at least one thing that can bring both generations together: boomer memes.

POLITICS

The Trump Years

An illustration of people reaching out to each other from across U.S. and Chinese cargo ships
Francis Scialabba
No matter your politics, the first three years of Donald Trump's presidency have been undeniably memorable. Besides driving endless Twitter traffic, Trump's left a lasting imprint on the business world. 

Trade

Business leaders knew Trump was a protectionist, but few could've imagined the 17-month trade war he'd wage with China. Tit-for-tat tariffs between the world's biggest economies limited global economic growth to a projected 3.2% this year and battered Europe.  
Tariffs have hurt some of the industries they were meant to protect (like agriculture and steel), disrupted supply chains, and muted capital investments. We'll find out whether they'll ultimately deliver concessions from China as intended. 

Courts

The Trump administration and Senate Republicans have confirmed 150+ federal judges, which many legal scholars expect will result in more conservative decisions. 

Regulation 

President Trump's administration instituted a "one in, one out" policy for new regulations and eased or rolled back hundreds of existing or planned rules. Many businesses that felt handcuffed by the Obama administration's strict oversight have welcomed the shift. 
Trump's also repealed many environmental regulations, much to the displeasure of climate activists.

Taxes 

The 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act dropped the corporate tax rate from 35% to 21%, which the administration said would spur economic growth and create jobs. A year after it was passed, the Congressional Research Service found little effect on growth and jobs and suspected that the trade war dampened any of the gains. 

POPULATION

We're Only Getting More Diverse

A chart showing the steady rise of the U.S. Hispanic population since 2000, and a pie chart showing the U.S.' racial makeup as of 2018
Ian McKinnon | Don't see "Hispanic or Latino" in the chart on the right? The U.S. Census breaks out Hispanic origin into a separate category, since it can refer to heritage, nationality, lineage, or country of origin. People who identify as "Hispanic" can belong to many different races.
By 2045, the U.S. is expected to be majority minority. One of the fastest-growing segments has been the Hispanic and Latino population. Between 2008 and 2018, they accounted for 52% of overall U.S. population growth.
As we discussed in the top story, the youngest generation is the most diverse. By next year, nonwhites are expected to account for more than half of the under-18 population.
Zoom out: 2045 sounds far away, but that's a pretty short amount of time for a country's demographics to change so rapidly. That shift will impact national identity, politics, and business throughout the 21st century. 

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FED

A Decade of Fed Chair Jokes

An illustration of a beam of light shining down on Jerome Powell
Francis Scialabba
Perhaps no public servant was under as much pressure in the last decade as the U.S. Federal Reserve chair. Not only were the three chairs who served charged with spearheading U.S. monetary policy in a post-crisis world, but they were also subjected to relentless internet teasing.

Ben Bernanke (2006–2014)

Bernanke has been credited with preventing the financial crisis from being even worse than it was, but still gets flak for not seeing the warning signs.
Tenure highlight: Quantitative easing, or buying Treasury bonds and mortgage-backed securities to increase the money supply following the crisis. 

Janet Yellen (2014–2018)

As the first female Fed chair, Yellen defied a contentious appointment process to become an adept, data-driven leader. Many were surprised when President Trump broke the 40-year tradition of giving the Fed chair a second term when he appointed Jerome Powell instead of Yellen in 2017.
Tenure highlight: Yellen's a Keynesian economist who believes government intervention should be an economy's life jacket. She advocated for "gradual" rate hikes during the end of her term, arguing too much too soon would be an "adverse shock" to the economy.

Jerome Powell (2018–present)

Look up "cautious optimism" in the dictionary and you'll find Powell, a former private equity manager and Obama appointee to the Fed Board of Governors. In year 11 of the current bull market, Powell's been focused on "[acting] as appropriate to sustain the expansion." 
Tenure lowlight (so far): Taking consistent beatings from President Trump, who's ripped up the traditional relationship between the White House and Fed by calling Powell a "bonehead," "terrible communicator," and "enemy."

UPDATE

Where Are They Now?

A photo of Barack Obama kitesurfing
Jack Brockway/Getty Images
Let's check in on some of the prominent names from the early 2010s:
Obamas: The former White House residents are now entertainment powerhouses. Michelle Obama's Becoming was 2018's best-selling book, and the couple's production company, Higher Ground, is working with Netflix on original content. 
John Boehner and Paul Ryan: When you step down as speaker of the House, the only place to go is a board of directors. Boehner did a hard 180 on his marijuana stance and joined cannabis company Acreage Holdings, while Ryan joined Fox's board.
Marissa Mayer: Mayer, aka Googler #20, had a rocky tenure as Yahoo CEO from 2012–2017. Last year, she 1) tried opening a coworking space for women and families in a funeral home she once used for Halloween parties and 2) cofounded tech incubator Lumi Labs, which focuses on consumer AI applications. 
Julian Assange: The Wikileaks founder has been entangled in legal proceedings the entire decade. After spending seven years sequestered in the Ecuadorian embassy in London (where he racked up at least a $6 million bill), Assange was pushed out this spring. He's being held in a British prison and awaiting a February hearing where he'll fight extradition to the U.S.  
Travis Kalanick: The Uber cofounder served as CEO from 2010–2017, when he resigned following controversy around his leadership. He's now leading an industry push into ghost kitchens (delivery-exclusive restaurants).

DEMOGRAPHICS

Getting Ready for the 2020 Census

2020 is a statistician's dream. Next year, the Census Bureau will take its decennial survey of the U.S. population, the results of which affect political representation, distribution of federal funds around the country, and hiring decisions. 
We're not trying to steal the census's thunder, but we've already uncovered some stats about U.S. demographic changes during the 2010s:
  • Population: From 2010–2018, the U.S. population increased 6% to 327 million. However, births have steadily decreased over the decade and hit a 32-year low in 2018 of 59 births/1,000 women. 
  • Gender: 50.8% of Americans are women, according to the bureau's latest data. 
  • Language: In over 21% of households, English is not the primary language (data from 2013–2017).
  • Immigration: More than 13% of the population is foreign-born, the highest level since the 1910s. 
  • Median household income: Median income rose to $63,179 in 2018—the same year the poverty rate dipped below 2007 levels for the first time this decade. The Gini index, however, shows inequality is widening. 
Looking ahead...the bureau is hiring hundreds of thousands of people across the country to help tally up the population. They'd better get some cyber experts and accountants, because the government's worried about hacking and cost overruns. 

MIGRATION

U.S. Refugee Resettlements at Decade Low

A chart showing refugee resettlements in the U.S., Canada, Australia, and the U.K. since 2010
Ian McKinnon
We're facing a global crisis. Over 70 million people have been forcibly displaced from their homes, almost 26 million of which are refugees, according to the United Nations. 
The U.S. led the world in refugee resettlements for almost four decades, annually taking in more people in need than the rest of the world combined. But two years ago, the U.S. slipped behind Canada and took in a historically low number of refugees, according to Pew. 
What happened? The Trump administration lowered the cap on the number of refugees allowed into the U.S. each year. After slashing the cap to 30,000 last year, the administration pared it down further to 18,000 in September. 

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BREW'S BETS

Speaking of people...we're looking for some to join our growing team. Working at the Brew is a ton of fun and an incredible learning experience. Check out the open positions to see if you (or a friend) would be a good fit. 

OOPS

CEOs Have Freezing Takes, Too

A gif of Elon Musk smoking on Joe Rogan's podcast
Giphy
"It's worse than tulip bulbs. It won't end well. Someone is going to get killed"—JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon discussing bitcoin in 2017. Now, his bank's got its own crypto
"Am considering taking Tesla private at $420. Funding secured"—Elon Musk in 2018. One SEC investigation later...
"I don't really worry so much about [Amazon Web Services], to be very blunt with you"—Oracle CEO Mark Hurd in 2017. Amazon's share of the cloud computing infrastructure market today? Close to 50%. 
"Apple is like a mutant virus, escaping from the traditional structure of the PC industry, but the industry will still eventually build up immunity, thus further blocking this trend"—Acer Cofounder and CEO Stan Shih in 2010. He retired in 2014 as his company struggled to keep up in the PC market. 
"We know where you are. We know where you've been. We can more or less know what you're thinking about"—Google CEO Eric Schmidt in 2010. Yeah...that one's pretty spot on. 

COMEDY

Real Influential Person Lazarus Silverblaze's Daily Routine

We caught up with tech founder (and real person) Lazarus Silverblaze, who detailed his daily routine for us. Witness the Silverblaze hustle:
4:00am—Exit hyperbaric rest chamber and cleanse teeth
4:05am—Roll a tire up nearby mountain
5:00am—Laps in backyard pool
5:15am—Ice bath (Mr. Silverblaze bathes an ice cube in tomato soup)
5:30am—Consume one (1) java bean
5:35am—Consume one (1) follow-up java bean
6:00am—Take international meetings
8:00am—Feed manta ray in backyard pool
8:30am—Photosynthesize (Mr. Silverblaze photosynthesizes. Like a plant.)
1:00pm—Take domestic meetings
4:00pm—Tweet
6:00pm—Spearfish red snapper from backyard pool
6:15pm—Hand-roll snapper into sushi; swallow in one bite
7:00pm—Listen to Radiohead (which is performing by backyard pool)
8:00pm—Cleanse teeth and re-enter hyperbaric rest chamber
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From: Morning Brew <crew@morningbrew.com>
Date: Sat, Dec 28, 2019 at 6:27 AM
Subject: ☕️ The Decade in Review: People
To: <joaoa.dsilva2019@gmail.com>  

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